Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Deadly heat at Mumbai? Bangkok compared.
Mumbai's "Deadly Heat Wave" this year at top; parallel Bangkok, routinely much worse without all the fuss, bottom. Maybe all this fright mongering is a phony form of global compassion, a PR creation of global warming enthusiasts?
Deadly heat at Mumbai? Bangkok compared.
Mumbai's "Deadly Heat Wave" this year at top; parallel Bangkok, routinely much worse without all the fuss, bottom. Maybe all this fright mongering is a phony form of global compassion, a PR creation of global warming enthusiasts?
Monday, May 11, 2015
Bangkok heat: cause of death?
A friend of mine, Greg Baecher, has spent much of his academic career analyzing risk for complicated failures. He recently wrote to me as follows:
Now thinking as one does at times at this time of life on the subject of mortality I propose that this comment is applicable to problems to be reckoned with by us elders. As our fragility increases with age, so do the potential causes of our demise become more complex and similar to the "system interactions" Greg describes. The man who sat next to me in The Londoner a year ago fell and broke his hip, or perhaps, as another version of the story has it, was knocked down by a bag-snatching thief while returning unsteadily from the pub. In any event a month later he is dead. Rendered immobile, he could no longer spend his evenings at The Londoner talking with his friends. "He lost his point," we mumbled gloomily at the bar.
John Updike's unforgettable character Rabbit (in the novel Rabbit at Rest) tries to recover past glory by playing basketball on a hot day with a teenager in the local Florida park; a fatal heart attack follows.
In this entry I want to describe what happened to another pub friend of mine, I'll call him Hector, dead now two days ago at the Police Hospital but not yet buried or burned as is done here in Thailand.
Hector drank a good deal of beer like many of us and was perhaps a few pounds heavier than necessary, but his better daily habits included a brisk 5 km dawn walk around the local park on Sukhumvit, the one established by a famous Thai politician as penance for his former deeds as a world-class brothel keeper and briber of police.
Now it is evident from the daily weather chart above for Don Muang airport that the humidity and heat in the early morning has been quite high here, and we would expect that toward the end of April Hector would have been sweating profusely at the end of his walks, with a tendency toward dehydration, perhaps exacerbated by the dehydrating effects of his beer the previous evening. (The latter contributing factor would be triumphantly overemphasized by those moralizing but otherwise minimally useful "health newsletters" so beloved in the nanny states of America.) Now it happened that Hector made much of preferring beer and Coca Cola to water, and out of deference to the time of day and maintenance of his weight he would avoid these preferred beverages at seven in the morning when he finished his walk but at the same time be less inclined to drink the amount of fluid, namely water, that might have been optimum for his condition.
I am increasingly of the opinion that failures seldom occur as we have analyzed and predicted them. They occur from system interactions which are essentially unidentifiable ahead of time: the odd combination of usual events which taken together in a particular order become malicious. The probability of any such set approaches zero, but their combinatorial number is extremely large; hence, one such might happen with non-neglibible probability.
Now thinking as one does at times at this time of life on the subject of mortality I propose that this comment is applicable to problems to be reckoned with by us elders. As our fragility increases with age, so do the potential causes of our demise become more complex and similar to the "system interactions" Greg describes. The man who sat next to me in The Londoner a year ago fell and broke his hip, or perhaps, as another version of the story has it, was knocked down by a bag-snatching thief while returning unsteadily from the pub. In any event a month later he is dead. Rendered immobile, he could no longer spend his evenings at The Londoner talking with his friends. "He lost his point," we mumbled gloomily at the bar.
John Updike's unforgettable character Rabbit (in the novel Rabbit at Rest) tries to recover past glory by playing basketball on a hot day with a teenager in the local Florida park; a fatal heart attack follows.
 |
| Hot weather in Bangkok, late April 2015 |
Hector drank a good deal of beer like many of us and was perhaps a few pounds heavier than necessary, but his better daily habits included a brisk 5 km dawn walk around the local park on Sukhumvit, the one established by a famous Thai politician as penance for his former deeds as a world-class brothel keeper and briber of police.
Now it is evident from the daily weather chart above for Don Muang airport that the humidity and heat in the early morning has been quite high here, and we would expect that toward the end of April Hector would have been sweating profusely at the end of his walks, with a tendency toward dehydration, perhaps exacerbated by the dehydrating effects of his beer the previous evening. (The latter contributing factor would be triumphantly overemphasized by those moralizing but otherwise minimally useful "health newsletters" so beloved in the nanny states of America.) Now it happened that Hector made much of preferring beer and Coca Cola to water, and out of deference to the time of day and maintenance of his weight he would avoid these preferred beverages at seven in the morning when he finished his walk but at the same time be less inclined to drink the amount of fluid, namely water, that might have been optimum for his condition.
It is well known that dehydration increases the level of salt and other wastes in the bodily fluids and urine which not surpisingly changes the electrical properties of the body and its organs, specifically the electrophysiology of the cardiovascular system. This promotes irregular heartbeats not infrequently causing one and sometimes several skipped beats, sometimes resulting in cardiac arrest for several seconds. Spontaneous refiring of the heart is the norm, but syncope, or fainting, may occur, with a serious hazard of falling. This was explained to me patiently by a cardiologist at the Samitivej Hospital (see my previous entry on this for details).
Hector was not so lucky. (To be continued)
Bangkok heat: cause of death?
A friend of mine, Greg Baecher, has spent much of his academic career analyzing risk for complicated failures. He recently wrote to me as follows:
Now thinking as one does at times at this time of life on the subject of mortality I propose that this comment is applicable to problems to be reckoned with by us elders. As our fragility increases with age, so do the potential causes of our demise become more complex and similar to the "system interactions" Greg describes. The man who sat next to me in The Londoner a year ago fell and broke his hip, or perhaps, as another version of the story has it, was knocked down by a bag-snatching thief while returning unsteadily from the pub. In any event a month later he is dead. Rendered immobile, he could no longer spend his evenings at The Londoner talking with his friends. "He lost his point," we mumbled gloomily at the bar.
John Updike's unforgettable character Rabbit (in the novel Rabbit at Rest) tries to recover past glory by playing basketball on a hot day with a teenager in the local Florida park; a fatal heart attack follows.
In this entry I want to describe what happened to another pub friend of mine, I'll call him Hector, dead now two days ago at the Police Hospital but not yet buried or burned as is done here in Thailand.
Hector drank a good deal of beer like many of us and was perhaps a few pounds heavier than necessary, but his better daily habits included a brisk 5 km dawn walk around the local park on Sukhumvit, the one established by a famous Thai politician as penance for his former deeds as a world-class brothel keeper and briber of police.
Now it is evident from the daily weather chart above for Don Muang airport that the humidity and heat in the early morning has been quite high here, and we would expect that toward the end of April Hector would have been sweating profusely at the end of his walks, with a tendency toward dehydration, perhaps exacerbated by the dehydrating effects of his beer the previous evening. (The latter contributing factor would be triumphantly overemphasized by those moralizing but otherwise minimally useful "health newsletters" so beloved in the nanny states of America.) Now it happened that Hector made much of preferring beer and Coca Cola to water, and out of deference to the time of day and maintenance of his weight he would avoid these preferred beverages at seven in the morning when he finished his walk but at the same time be less inclined to drink the amount of fluid, namely water, that might have been optimum for his condition.
I am increasingly of the opinion that failures seldom occur as we have analyzed and predicted them. They occur from system interactions which are essentially unidentifiable ahead of time: the odd combination of usual events which taken together in a particular order become malicious. The probability of any such set approaches zero, but their combinatorial number is extremely large; hence, one such might happen with non-neglibible probability.
Now thinking as one does at times at this time of life on the subject of mortality I propose that this comment is applicable to problems to be reckoned with by us elders. As our fragility increases with age, so do the potential causes of our demise become more complex and similar to the "system interactions" Greg describes. The man who sat next to me in The Londoner a year ago fell and broke his hip, or perhaps, as another version of the story has it, was knocked down by a bag-snatching thief while returning unsteadily from the pub. In any event a month later he is dead. Rendered immobile, he could no longer spend his evenings at The Londoner talking with his friends. "He lost his point," we mumbled gloomily at the bar.
John Updike's unforgettable character Rabbit (in the novel Rabbit at Rest) tries to recover past glory by playing basketball on a hot day with a teenager in the local Florida park; a fatal heart attack follows.
|
| Hot weather in Bangkok, late April 2015 |
Hector drank a good deal of beer like many of us and was perhaps a few pounds heavier than necessary, but his better daily habits included a brisk 5 km dawn walk around the local park on Sukhumvit, the one established by a famous Thai politician as penance for his former deeds as a world-class brothel keeper and briber of police.
Now it is evident from the daily weather chart above for Don Muang airport that the humidity and heat in the early morning has been quite high here, and we would expect that toward the end of April Hector would have been sweating profusely at the end of his walks, with a tendency toward dehydration, perhaps exacerbated by the dehydrating effects of his beer the previous evening. (The latter contributing factor would be triumphantly overemphasized by those moralizing but otherwise minimally useful "health newsletters" so beloved in the nanny states of America.) Now it happened that Hector made much of preferring beer and Coca Cola to water, and out of deference to the time of day and maintenance of his weight he would avoid these preferred beverages at seven in the morning when he finished his walk but at the same time be less inclined to drink the amount of fluid, namely water, that might have been optimum for his condition.
It is well known that dehydration increases the level of salt and other wastes in the bodily fluids and urine which not surpisingly changes the electrical properties of the body and its organs, specifically the electrophysiology of the cardiovascular system. This promotes irregular heartbeats not infrequently causing one and sometimes several skipped beats, sometimes resulting in cardiac arrest for several seconds. Spontaneous refiring of the heart is the norm, but syncope, or fainting, may occur, with a serious hazard of falling. This was explained to me patiently by a cardiologist at the Samitivej Hospital (see my previous entry on this for details).
Hector was not so lucky. (To be continued)
Thursday, May 7, 2015
Smelly tennis shoes?
Now here is a remarkable fact. When I lived in California, and especially when I drove down the Mississippi valley on a trip back to the US last summer, I noticed the old problem of bad smell developing in my tennis shoes. Disgusting and ineradicable!Amazingly this does not happen here in Thailand?
Why?
Years ago as an engineer I used to consult on legal problems arising from mold in houses. Erin Brokovitch was my client! What I learned is that mold grows best at moderate temperatures, not where it is very hot. Even the mold can't stand Bangkok in the hot season!
Smelly tennis shoes?
Now here is a remarkable fact. When I lived in California, and especially when I drove down the Mississippi valley on a trip back to the US last summer, I noticed the old problem of bad smell developing in my tennis shoes. Disgusting and ineradicable!Amazingly this does not happen here in Thailand?
Why?
Years ago as an engineer I used to consult on legal problems arising from mold in houses. Erin Brokovitch was my client! What I learned is that mold grows best at moderate temperatures, not where it is very hot. Even the mold can't stand Bangkok in the hot season!
Everyone complaining about the heat
Even my long-time expat friends -- three in a row today -- describe this week's weather as being miserable. Most mention the humidity but of course the Thai say simply "hot" -- and give you a blank smile when you say "humid"!Objectively, I must be scientific and measure the wet bulb temperature, which I do by using the wet rag technique. It hovers around 28 C, even as my condo interior surfaces and floor are 30-31 and the afternoon temperatures outside hover around 37.
A strong fan and minimal clothing make 30 C in my condo perfectly comfortable during the day, but we use the bedroom air conditioning, set to 24-25 C, for sleeping. This doubles my electrical bill from about $35 to $70 per month. A dollar a day for comfortable sleeping. A fan works for the Thai but doesn't do the job for us because of our higher body mass index and soft foreign bed that impedes heat transfer from the body and leads to the dreaded wet pillow syndrome.
Late mornings are the worst in May, a bit of a breeze makes it more tolerable in the afternoon. My luxo Japanese-style massage place, normally overbooked, is oddly empty today; I'm told that the heat is just keeping those rich customers at home
Everyone complaining about the heat
Even my long-time expat friends -- three in a row today -- describe this week's weather as being miserable. Most mention the humidity but of course the Thai say simply "hot" -- and give you a blank smile when you say "humid"!Objectively, I must be scientific and measure the wet bulb temperature, which I do by using the wet rag technique. It hovers around 28 C, even as my condo interior surfaces and floor are 30-31 and the afternoon temperatures outside hover around 37.
A strong fan and minimal clothing make 30 C in my condo perfectly comfortable during the day, but we use the bedroom air conditioning, set to 24-25 C, for sleeping. This doubles my electrical bill from about $35 to $70 per month. A dollar a day for comfortable sleeping. A fan works for the Thai but doesn't do the job for us because of our higher body mass index and soft foreign bed that impedes heat transfer from the body and leads to the dreaded wet pillow syndrome.
Late mornings are the worst in May, a bit of a breeze makes it more tolerable in the afternoon. My luxo Japanese-style massage place, normally overbooked, is oddly empty today; I'm told that the heat is just keeping those rich customers at home
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